PREDICTING THE SPATIAL DETERMINANTS OF HUMAN–ELEPHANT
CONFLICT IN HWANGE DISTRICT

PREDICTING THE SPATIAL DETERMINANTS OF HUMAN–ELEPHANT
CONFLICT IN HWANGE DISTRICT

FARAI MADZIMURE

This study predicted the spatial determinants of human-elephant conflict in Victoria Falls town,
Hwange West communal area and the resettlement areas of Don Rovin, Mubiya and Kalala. The
study covered an elephant range of 4377km2. The non-experimental quantitative research design
was adopted for the study. Garmin GPS receiver, digitizing and observation instruments were
employed for collecting human-elephant conflict location data and spatial factors. Overlay
analysis was used to combine human-elephant conflict location data with the distance maps of
predictive spatial factors in ILWIS. Logistic regression was used to relate human-elephant
conflict data and distance values of predictive factors in SPSS. In Victoria Falls town, results
indicated that human-elephant conflict probability could be predicted significantly using distance
from the park boundary and settlements. Distance from the forest and elephants routes
significantly explained human-elephant conflict in the communal area of Hwange West. Human-
elephant conflict was significantly related with distance from the forest in the Resettlement areas.
These results suggest that the most important predictor of human-elephant conflict on this
particular landscape is distance from protected areas. Implementation of effective conflict
resolution strategies for the three areas requires stakeholders to take cognisance of the spatial
factors which are related to human-elephant conflict. In Victoria Falls town, results imply that if
elephants and humans are to co-exist with minimal conflict, there is need for land use planners to
focus on developing mitigatory measures which deter elephants to move freely from the park to
the residential areas. A deterrent method such as the installation of electric fence around Victoria
Falls town has a great potential of preventing elephants from entering settlements and
minimising human-elephant conflict. Such an approach is critical as results indicated that
distance from the park boundary significantly predict human-elephant conflict in Victoria Falls
town. Alternatively, town planners can consider vertical expansion of the built up area to prevent
encroaching into the park. For Hwange communal and resettlement areas, land use planners
should prevent settlement patterns that leave crop fields vulnerable to crop raiding. In Hwange
communal area, planning the position of fences and other human-elephant conflict measures
should consider the position of elephant routes. Alternatively, land use planners can consider
allocating land to other uses besides settlements and agriculture. Integrating the spatial
determinants of human-elephant conflict with land use planning has a great potential of offering
permanent solutions to the conflict problem. Further research should be conducted on monitoring
elephant movement patterns in the area using satellite linked GPS collars. This information can
enhance our understanding of the routes used by elephants when they move around the
settlements. This enhances our understanding of how elephants interact with spatial human land
use and natural factors. Such information is crucial in designing effective human-elephant
conflict resolution measures.

ZIMBABWE OPEN UNIVERSITY

2017